Bitcoin Bulls Lose Steam as CryptoQuant Demand Gauge Nears Max
Spot and futures demand are both contracting even after BTC broke its 365-day moving average, the onchain firm says.
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Bitcoin cracked an eight-month high near $87,400 and then sagged back. It changed hands just above $83,300 on Wednesday Asian hours, a gain of 0.4%, and CryptoQuant's Bull Score climbed to 90 out of 100 in the same stretch.
The score mashes onchain and market readings into one number. It spiked after bitcoin closed above its 365-day moving average last week, which the analysis firm counts as a bull-market signal.
But the buying that carried prices that high is thinning. CryptoQuant puts spot demand at roughly 170,000 BTC lower over 30 days, according to CoinDesk. The firm infers demand by pitting newly mined coins against shifts in supply that has sat still for a year or more — a measure it labels apparent demand — and that measure has been shrinking all month, meaning the market is soaking up less than what gets released.
Speculative positioning is unwinding even quicker. Futures demand growth slid from about 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to 16,000 BTC on Sept. 29, a 90% fall inside 15 days.
Recent buyers are also deep in the green: an average unrealized profit of 33%, the fattest cushion since December 2024. They sold into 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, the heaviest single day of profit-taking this year.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, wrote in the report that "without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend" and that with spot demand contracting and futures growth stalled, "near-term upside becomes harder to sustain."
Altcoin holders are feeding coins to exchanges as well. CryptoQuant tallied 76,000 altcoin deposits over seven days from 51,000 distinct addresses, the most since October 2025. Once coins sit on an exchange they can be dumped in seconds, so that supply lurks within reach of any bounce.
Among the majors, SOL and ZEC each rose nearly 2%, to about $119 and just past $1,400. XRP added roughly 1% to just under $1.50, while ether, BNB and TRX each gained less than 1%, CoinDesk data shows.
A broader Asian lift, and a rate question
Regional markets bounced alongside crypto. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.9%, with 10 of 11 industry groups in the green, and bonds settled after a sharp selloff. SoftBank Group, a backer of OpenAI, climbed more than 6% after Bloomberg reported the AI startup is hunting at least $30 billion in new money at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Equity-index futures signaled gains in Europe and on Wall Street.
Attention now sits on a U.S. inflation report due later in the day, which will shape rate expectations. A hot number tends to lift the odds of a hike, strengthening the dollar and pressing on risk assets like bitcoin; a cool one pushes toward a cut, which usually favors crypto.
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