Bitcoin Close to First Three-Month Win Streak Since 2012
After gains in July and August, BTC is on pace to close September higher, a pattern that last played out 14 years ago—and preceded a massive rally.
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Bitcoin is on the verge of recording gains in three consecutive months for the first time since 2012, according to price data compiled by CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency climbed 4.8% in July and 25.2% in August, and is currently up about 10.9% for September, trading near $86,140 at press time, per CoinDesk.
The only prior instance of such a streak occurred in 2012, when bitcoin rose 41.0%, 6.4%, and 24.4% over the same three months. That run ended in October of that year with a 9.7% drop, but the decline bottomed out at $10.17 on Oct. 26. From that low, bitcoin embarked on a 165-day rally that took it to $230 by April 2013—a gain of more than 2,000%, CoinDesk's analysis of daily price data shows.
Whether this year will follow a similar script—a red October followed by a sustained bull run—is far from certain. The historical sample is tiny. Bitcoin has traded since at least late 2010, and this exact three-month pattern has appeared only once. With just a single precedent, the data offers little statistical basis for predicting what comes next, CoinDesk noted.
Still, the rarity of the setup, combined with the outsized rally that followed the 2012 streak and bitcoin's broader four-year market cycle, makes the current pattern noteworthy. Some cycle models point to a potentially bullish phase beginning around October or November, though these models are approximations rather than fixed calendar rules.
Any rally today is unlikely to match the percentage gains of 2012 in magnitude. In that era, bitcoin was a thinly traded asset worth barely $10, and a relatively small number of buyers could move the market. Now, bitcoin is part of a multi-trillion-dollar ecosystem with significant institutional participation, deep spot and derivatives liquidity across dozens of venues, and a wide array of trading strategies—including options, futures, and basis trades. Those markets did not exist at comparable scale in 2012, making similarly explosive percentage moves much harder to achieve today.
The 2012 precedent remains a point of interest for traders, but as CoinDesk emphasized, its predictive power is limited. The current market's complexity and the lack of historical repetition mean investors should treat any parallels with caution.
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