Bitcoin shrugs off Fed hike and Senate defeat to stay on course for first quarterly gain in a year

Bitcoin has spent most of September — statistically its worst month of the year — refusing to give back its gains, holding above $77,000 even as rate hikes, a failed crypto bill and firmer energy prices piled up this week. The token was trading near $78,000 on Friday, leaving the month-to-month loss at just 1.5% and the quarter's gain at about 32%.

The quarter-to-date performance puts bitcoin on track for its first positive quarterly close since the third quarter of 2025. That is a sharp contrast with the month's historical pattern: September has produced an average loss of roughly 3% since 2013, and after bitcoin's 25% August rally to around $81,000, a sharper pullback was widely expected.

The week delivered the kind of news that, in most environments, would have hit risk assets hard. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. A day earlier, the Clarity Act — legislation that would have set a statutory framework for crypto — failed in the Senate, drawing only 49 votes against the 60 needed to advance. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $74,887 on Tuesday, then steadied almost immediately.

According to CoinDesk, analysts read the muted reaction as evidence that sellers have largely exhausted themselves. "Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. They no longer have coins to sell," said Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence at Blockware, in an email. "That is an incredibly positive sign for the medium to long term."

The macro backdrop offered little support. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $106 a barrel on Tuesday, a five-month high, amid ongoing Middle East tensions. The Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, moved above 100 for the first time in over a month, and the Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark borrowing cost to a 31-year high.

Some argue higher yields need not be bearish for bitcoin. "It's not a one-way street," said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank. "If rising rates are an indication of debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk, then for store of value assets that is actually a positive driver." Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, added that even a modest improvement in macro or regulatory conditions could serve as a catalyst for the next leg higher.

Policy picture brightens

The Senate defeat has not ended the regulatory thaw. On Thursday, the Securities and Exchange Commission released its long-awaited innovation exemption, letting qualifying platforms trade tokenized stocks onchain under specified conditions. Kruger noted that while the failed vote delays a statutory framework, the SEC and CFTC can still issue guidance under existing authority.

Two caveats temper the bullish case. Markets are pricing three additional quarter-point Fed hikes by April 2027, which would lift the federal funds rate to 4.50%–4.75%. And seasonality remains unforgiving near term: bitcoin has fallen an average of 2.5% in the year's 38th week, according to Coinglass data, with gains in only four instances. The same calendar turns friendly afterward, however — CoinDesk data shows bitcoin averaging a 77% gain in the fourth quarter.