XRP approaches a golden cross as bitcoin's market grip loosens
The token's 50-day average sits within 2% of its 200-day line, but its track record with the pattern is mixed at best.
Illustration · generated, not a photograph
XRP is close to forming a golden cross, the technical pattern traders treat as a long-term bullish signal, just as bitcoin's shrinking share of the total crypto market pushes capital toward smaller tokens.
A golden cross appears when an asset's 50-day moving average rises above its 200-day moving average. Chart watchers read the arrangement as evidence of durable upward momentum, and bitcoin confirmed the same pattern recently.
XRP's 50-day average is currently about 2% below its 200-day line, the narrowest gap since the token's most recent golden cross in August 2024, according to CoinDesk.
History counsels caution
The pattern's record on XRP is unimpressive. Every one of the token's 16 previous golden crosses was ended by a death cross — the bearish mirror image, where the shorter average slips back under the longer one — within 12 months. Six of those crossovers failed to last even three months.
Still, the short term has sometimes rewarded holders. Of the 10 crosses that survived three months, five produced gains spanning 85% to more than 1,000%. A crossover in April 2017 preceded a 1,009.6% rally, and the February 2021 cross was followed by a 135% climb. The other five, however, fell by as much as 32%.
The data suggest the golden cross, like most technical indicators, is unreliable on its own.
Meanwhile, attention is rotating. Bitcoin is trading near $78,000, roughly flat over the past week, after absorbing a Federal Reserve rate increase and a legislative setback for the Clarity Act. Analysts nonetheless view the token's resilience as constructive.
The bigger shift is in market composition. Bitcoin's dominance — its share of total crypto market capitalization — has fallen below 59%, a one-month low. Coins such as UNI, NEAR and ARB rallied close to 30% in a single day.
"Altcoins have accelerated sharply while the majors lag. Markets hope for SEC and CFTC crypto adoption, plus passage of the Bitcoin Reserve Bill," Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.
He added that traders appear to be cautiously steering toward altcoins, though neither the altcoin season index nor overall market sentiment has reached elevated levels yet.
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