Analyst flags rare Fisher Transform crossover as potential Bitcoin bear-market bottom signal
Willy Woo says the monthly-chart crossover has preceded every previous BTC macro uptrend, though he stops short of calling the bottom with certainty.
Illustration · generated, not a photograph
Bitcoin may have already printed its long-term floor for this cycle, if a rarely triggered technical signal proves as reliable as it has been in the past. Analyst Willy Woo highlighted a bullish crossover on the Fisher Transform indicator that, on Bitcoin's monthly chart, has only occurred four times — and each of the prior three marked a bear-market bottom.
Woo laid out the readings in an X thread on Friday. "BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record," he wrote, per Cointelegraph's coverage.
The Fisher Transform, a price-analysis tool dating to 2002, rescales market prices using a logarithmic transform so that trend strength becomes easier to read. It plots two lines — the Fisher line itself and a trigger line derived from it with a one-period lag — oscillating around a central zero. When the two lines cross upward from deeply negative territory, the indicator is flagging a sharp reversal in momentum.
The crossover Woo identified occurred in July at a reading of -2.26. If it holds, historical precedent points toward the start of a new macro uptrend for BTC/USD. Woo nonetheless cautioned that Bitcoin could still trade sideways or drift lower first. He pointed to a related phenomenon during bull markets, where the indicator can produce a bearish crossover that is later followed by a fresh bullish one before the trend resumes.
Why bottoms read more cleanly than tops
Woo attributes the reliability of bottom signals to the makeup of the market at cycle lows. When Bitcoin falls far enough for long-term investors to see value, he argued, speculative traders — who react to short-term price swings and inject noise into momentum — are largely absent. "Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define," he said, adding that the pattern shows up in many signals beyond the Fisher Transform.
A separate timeframe reinforces the case. On the weekly chart, the indicator swung to a low of -2.85 at the end of December 2025, when Bitcoin was trading near $90,000. Since then, Fisher has printed a series of higher lows while price itself has made lower lows — a bullish divergence that also formed in 2022 during the final six months of Bitcoin's last bear market.
The signal arrives amid lingering doubt about whether Bitcoin's drop to 21-month lows near $57,000 on July 1 genuinely marked the cycle bottom. Several onchain metrics have flashed bear-market reversal signals in recent months, but conviction remains thin.
Notably, Woo himself has urged caution. Last week he observed that typical buyer interest was missing at those lows, with bid-side activity indicating that only a small number of high-volume investors were accumulating at the time.
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