Bitcoin's Bond Correlation Is Effectively Zero, Data Shows

Global bond yields jumped sharply on Wednesday, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury climbing 15 basis points to above 5.13%, its highest since 2007. The conventional read is that this is bad for bitcoin: higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest, pulling money toward bonds instead. That logic sounds plausible, but the historical numbers tell a different story.

According to data analyzed by CoinDesk, the 90-day correlation between bitcoin's daily returns and the daily moves in the 10-year yield is just -0.18 — effectively zero. Stretch the window and the picture barely changes: the 180-day correlation sits at -0.06, and the 1-year figure is -0.03. Bitcoin shows similarly weak links to yields in other countries.

That near-zero correlation is itself an asset. Investment banks have long argued that low correlation to traditional markets makes an asset useful for improving a portfolio's risk-adjusted returns. Crypto analysts agree. “Bitcoin’s near-zero correlation with U.S. Treasury yields is a genuine portfolio advantage because it suggests BTC is not simply trading as a duration or rates asset,” Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told CoinDesk.

Performance backs the point. Since 2021, bitcoin is up 191% and hit a record $126,000 last October, even as 10-year yields rose more than 500 basis points in the U.K. and France and over 400 in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy. Japan and Switzerland saw smaller increases of 296 and 105 basis points, while China's yields fell amid deflation.

None of this means bitcoin is immune to short-term shocks. A sudden burst of bond-market turbulence can tighten financial conditions, raise credit costs and trigger broad risk aversion, even if the level of yields itself doesn't matter much to bitcoin.

Wednesday was a case in point. The MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in Treasuries, jumped 21% to 95 — its highest since April 1. Bitcoin dropped from $87,200 to $83,500 that day; analysts note the market may also have been due for a pullback after a steep rally. If Treasury volatility keeps climbing, bitcoin could correct further.

The yield move itself wasn't driven by fiscal scares. U.S. data led the way: the S&P Global flash Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, the highest since July 2021, pointing to the fastest business activity growth in over five years along with rising inflation pressure. That reinforced expectations the Fed will keep hiking after its September quarter-point increase.

But a closer look at the day's moves shows France's yield actually rose more than the U.S.'s, and the U.K.'s nearly kept pace. Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former chief economist at the IIF, wrote on Substack that the same pattern held for Italy and Greece. “What happened today is that we got strong data for the U.S. and then fiscally vulnerable places caught on fire,” he said.

That pattern isn't new. Markets have been punishing high-debt countries for a while. Japan led with a debt-to-GDP ratio over 200% at the end of 2025, followed by the U.S. at 123.8%, France at 115%, the U.K. at 102%, and China at 100%, per Statista. Switzerland, by contrast, carries just 16% debt-to-GDP — a reason some analysts now see the Swiss franc as the preferred carry-currency haven over the yen.

For bitcoin, the takeaway is straightforward: the fiscal, growth and inflation worries that move yields in Paris, London or New York haven't shown up in its price action over the years. The forces spooking bond markets are priced into fiat currencies and yields, but not into BTC.